F1’s most expensive game of musical chairs
Zafir Nagji, Staff Writer
Formula One’s offseason never disappoints. Nicknamed “silly season,” the action off the track tends to be almost as spicy as the nail-biting races on it, with drivers changing teams and in turn completely altering the landscape of the sport. While the 2024 silly season got off to a slow start, with most teams just extending their current driver pairings, fans were treated to arguably the biggest move in F1’s history.
Lewis Hamilton, the most successful driver of all time, will leave Mercedes, the team Hamilton was apart of for the last 17 years, to join the most successful team of all time, Scuderia Ferrari, in 2025. So, what made the seven-time world champion switch teams?
Ferrari’s historic legacy is indisputably iconic, as they hold the most Constructor’s Championships (16) and have been in the sport since 1950. However, the last time a Ferrari driver took home the Driver’s Championship was in 2007. Their most recent Constructor’s Championship came just a year later, in 2008 at the hands of Kimi Raikkonen and his Brazilian co-driver, Felipe Massa. Whether it be horrific strategy calls, all-out driver wars, or their rotating door of team bosses, the Prancing Horse has yet to return to the glory of their illustrious past.
That being said, the red cars themselves have been quick in the last few seasons, especially since the introduction of the budget cap in 2021, and the team from Italy has never failed to acquire talented pilots. Even though Red Bull Racing has dominated the last two seasons and Max Verstappen looks undefeatable at the helm, Ferrari has been engaged in a stiff battle for second-fastest with Mercedes-AMG, McLaren, and Aston Martin. They tallied nine podium finishes in 22 races last year, and even managed to win one of them in Singapore.
Meanwhile, Hamilton, who holds the record for most race wins with 103, hasn’t tasted victory since the 2021 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. He’s stockpiled a series of podiums since then, but due to the lack of pace from his last two Mercedes-AMG race cars and the sheer dominance from Verstappen, the British driver has been unable to taste victory for two whole seasons. As a result, the boost his all-time legacy will receive if he can bring the most beloved team back to their prestigious status could be monumental.
However, a move like this, while captivating all on its own, could start a domino effect that causes silly season to leak into the 24-race 2024 Formula One season. Mercedes-AMG, who have won eight of the last 10 Constructor’s Championships, must now decide who is worthy of filling one of, if not the most desirable seat on the grid.
One scenario entails Andrea Kimi Antonelli, their 17-year-old reserve driver and current Formula Two pilot, filling the now empty seat in the hopes that he can develop into a race-winning driver quickly, similar to how Red Bull Racing handed Verstappen a race seat at the same age. However, it’s important to remember that the Dutch speedster was driving for their junior team, Scuderia Toro Rosso, and was not expected to win races. Mercedes-AMG is a team that races for podiums and wins, and so the question would be: can Antonelli jump into a seat as an 18-year-old and handle the pressure, all while staying out of the way of his race-winning co-driver, George Russell?
Another potential outcome, and one that feels far more likely to happen, is them signing the most talented and proven winning driver to pair with Russell. Sergio Perez, Fernando Alonso, Carlos Sainz, Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon, Daniel Ricciardo, and Valtteri Bottas are just some of the drivers with contracts that expire at the end of the upcoming 2024 season, and, more importantly, all have at least one Formula One race win to their name.
So, who should Mercedes-AMG choose? Considering that most of the current rumours swirling around the team indicate that they are open to giving Antonelli a chance, it seems that the Silver Arrow is committed to Russell being the lead driver. The only other candidate that could realistically knock him off that pedestal would be Alonso, with 32 race wins and two Driver’s Championships to his name. However, Alonso is in his mid-40s and it’s unknown how many more years he could reliably race at this level.
Esteban Ocon and Mercedes-AMG team boss Toto Wolff have been linked in the past before but present a gamble as the French driver has never finished better than 8th in the Driver’s Championship. Gasly’s ties with Russell could help him secure the seat, but the Frenchman hasn’t won a race since his first victory at the 2020 Italian Grand Prix.
Cross Sainz off the list too, as he’s been speculated to be joining Audi when they take over the Sauber-Stake team in 2026. A return to the Brackley-based team might seem picturesque for Bottas, but the Finnish driver hasn’t turned in an exceptional result since Russell replaced him after 2021, which could also create a sour work environment for both drivers.
This leaves Ricciardo and Perez on the table, and while both drivers are immensely talented, Red Bull Racing has personal ties with Daniel Ricciardo and will likely put him in their open 2025 seat before any other team has the chance to sign him.
Mercedes-AMG can then scoop up Perez with little to no risk of messing with the team dynamic they are hoping to achieve, as the Mexican driver has become well-acquainted with being the secondary driver after spending three years with Verstappen. Plus, since the Dutchman is so unbelievably fast, Perez has recently become one of the most underrated names on the grid, making him worth a smaller contract amount. It would also be a great way for Perez to re-establish himself as an elite driver by securing better individual results for a team that desperately needs it and challenging Russell to prove his mettle as the lead driver of the team.
The game of musical chairs, or race seats, has only just begun in the billionaire’s playground that is Formula One. The first and arguably biggest domino may already have fallen with Hamilton going to Ferrari, but fans of the sport must brace themselves for what could be the most entertaining silly season ever seen.