Experts forecast a colder year, but say global warming remains a scorching
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Sarah Palmer, Staff Writer | 

Proclamations by meteorologists saying the year ahead will be “the hottest” or “coldest” on record seem to have become a 21st-century tradition for welcoming the new year.

But despite the bellows ringing like a nuisance of redundancy, temperatures are breaking records year after year—proving the statements truer, with every calendar replaced.

Despite the expectation of 2025 being colder than the last two years, The Met Office predicts that it will achieve third place behind 2023 and 2024—the current warmest year on record—on the list of the globe’s hottest years to date.

So, how did we get here?

An increase in temperature, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and sea level was demonstrated in 2023 and 2024, all of which have contributed to a significant loss in glacial mass, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

According to Golden Gate Weather Services, the warming of the ocean’s surface temperature was partially caused by the El Niño weather pattern which dominated 2023 and the first half of 2024 at a “strong” level when measured using the Oceanic Niño Index.

Following the often 12 to 18-month-long heat anomaly comes the La Niña weather pattern, which gradually brought opposite, cooling qualities between June and November 2024.

Aligning with the Atlantic tropical storm season, data from the National Hurricane Center reveals how the somewhat recent category four Beryl and category five Milton hurricanes were rooted in the event of this shift.

What are the climate predictions for 2025?

In a report published Jan. 6, 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there is a 59 per cent chance of La Niña, or “ENSO-cool,” conditions persisting until the end of the month.

Assuming the odds are in favor of a continuing La Niña weather pattern, the NOAA explains that a “wave-like jet stream flow” across North America would cause the southern half of the United States to experience a warm climate with limited storms. Simultaneously, a colder than normal, more storm-abundant winter would start in the northern United States and blanket over western and central Canada.

Bringing drier conditions to the southwestern United States and wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest, it’s not unlikely for flooding conditions to continue into the new year—events not dissimilar to Vancouver’s six inches of rainfall which overwhelmed drain systems and caused widespread flooding last October, according to NASA Earth Observatory.

Between March and May, the NOAA predicts a 61 per cent chance of “ENSO-neutral” conditions bringing the tropical Pacific’s temperature, wind, and rainfall levels near their long-term averages. This means the climate would essentially be free of the drastic positive or negative influences brought on by an El Niño or La Niña.

This neutral weather pattern would cause polar jet streams to shift southward from the Pacific, bringing warmth to regions that usually experience mild temperatures and cold to areas where freezing conditions are considered standard during the winter months.

That could result in colder probabilities in parts of Québec and Ontario, the northern prairies, and territories, while warmer probabilities would lend themselves to the southern United States along the Mexican border.

What does this mean for Calgary?

Thankfully for Alberta, the recent shift to La Niña has improved the province’s drought conditions previously brought about by El Niño, as a result of the moisture experienced toward the end of the summer.

Trends of moisture materialized as heavy snowfall and colder than average temperatures are expected to continue in 2025, despite the balmy winter and short-lived negative temperatures thus far.

Anticipating extreme weather events to become more frequent in western Canada, climate journalist, Kyle Brittain told CBC Radio that Calgarians should expect more hail storms like the one on Aug. 5, 2024, which caused just over $2.8 billion in insured losses—becoming the country’s most expensive weather event to date, according to the Government of Canada.

Mother Nature vs. human-kind: who’s to blame?

Since receiving its name in the 1600s, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern has naturally explained instances of extreme weather, including dramatic spikes or drops in temperature—but it’s not the only factor contributing to global warming.

Marking the first time in history, the global average temperature between 2023 and 2024 reached 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, the El Niño was found responsible for causing only 10 per cent of the warming experienced in 2023.

The primary cause, according to Hossein Bonakdari, associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Ottawa, was the impacts of deforestation and fossil fuel burning among other human activities—which amounted to “more than 90 per cent” of global warming in 2023.

According to the Government of Canada, global GHG emissions jumped by 24 per cent between 2005 and 2021 alone. Although not responsible for the entire sum of these emissions, the energy sector makes up 75 per cent of the world’s warmth-provoking activities and includes electricity, heat, and transportation—often powered using elements of fossil fuels.

Signing the Paris Agreement in 2015 established Canada’s involvement in attempting to keep the global average temperature from exceeding pre-industrial levels.

As part of this, the recently resigned Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced a $9.1 billion plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 by encouraging electric vehicle ownership and integrating clean technologies into the energy and construction industries.

Scheduled for this November in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, world leaders of the 194 countries participating in the Paris Agreement are expected to re-communicate or update their climate-conscious plans at the COP30 conference—mere weeks after Canadians will have elected a new prime minister this year on Oct. 20.

Based on a vote projection model published Jan. 6, CBC reports a 98 per cent probability of the United Conservative Party winning a majority government in the next federal election, which would give party leader Pierre Poilievre—an avid campaigner against the Liberal’s carbon tax—title as prime minister.

Sarah Palmer is a Staff Writer for The Reflector 2024-2025.